Geopolitical tensions over election results, key stock indices to determine stock market movement next week

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Geopolitical tensions emanating from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as well as the crucial results of the National Assembly elections will determine the main movements of stock indices next week.

In addition, macro data on industrial production as well as the direction of foreign fund flows and global commodity price movements will impact investor sentiment.

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Next week’s defining moment will be the announcement of the results of the legislative elections in five states – Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Punjab – on March 10.

“The Assembly election exit polls on March 7 and the March 10 election result would be a closely watched key event, while the Fed meeting scheduled for March 15-16 would affect the economy. world,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

“The recent correction has led to a moderation in valuations and the good earnings visibility may act as a cushion in an otherwise fragile external situation.”

In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict led to a spike in the prices of Brent and other commodities, which raised inflationary fears.

The trend has accelerated the sale of FIIs in the Indian stock market.

“Constant selling by REITs has resulted in all the rallies being sold off. Domestic investors are also hit in terms of sentiment at regular intervals, with the anticipated rate of decline falling deep into negative on March 4,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities. .

“A deep negative close for US or European markets on Friday could lead to a gap down for the Indian markets open on Monday. to be seen later as A stream of positive news is expected to arrive from Europe early next week.”

In addition to geopolitical tensions, the domestic market will closely follow policy statements from the BoE and the US Fed.

“Due to war-related uncertainties, central banks may offset their hawkish policy from what was expected earlier due to high inflation. This may give the market some breathing room in the short term,” he said. said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services.

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